# Discussion on Arena models

Simulation

Assignment Instructions

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You can discuss the questions with colleagues. But you are not allowed to share your work.

Alike assignments will earn a grade of 0 first time.

Alike assignments will lead to an F in the course second time.

Previous semester assignments will earn a grade of 0 first time.

Previous semester assignments will lead to an F in the course second time.

Sources and Plagiarism

Cite your sources (i.e., websites, books, magazines, etc.)

Plagiarism:  To use the same words as your source.

Plagiarism leads to a 0 in the assignment. No matter if it is only a sentence.

Be organized and professional.

Consistent formatting is expected (Line spacing, margins, fonts, numbering, etc.)

Poorly presented assignments will lose up to 50% because of presentation.

Include calculations when necessary.

How many Daejo leaders are located in the state of Texas?

Acceptable answer: Currently there are 9 dealers in the state of Texas.

Note: Answers need to be presented in a professional and nice fashion.

One of the best sellers at a paint store is an Iron-coat paint. The annual demand is forecasted as 10,000 gallons.  The carrying cost is \$0.75 per gallon. The ordering cost is \$150 per order. How much paint should be ordered each time?

Acceptable answer: The paint store should order 2,000 gallons each time. Calculations below show how the answer was obtained:

Note: Answer is professionally presented. Calculation details are shown using Microsoft equation editor.

Homework Assignment 08

1. [10 points] Explain why simulations are important as decision making tools.
2. [10 points] Discuss the advantages of simulations compared to actual systems.
3. [10 points] Briefly explain “Discrete Event Simulation”. Provide examples.
4. [40 points] Consider the following system: At a remote gas station, there is only one pump. Assume that the customers arrive at the gas station according to a Poisson distribution with a mean of 12 per hour. The time that it takes a customer to fill the tank is random, and an analysis of the service time has indicated that the time can be modeled with an exponential distribution with a mean of 3 minutes. Customers who arrive at the gas station are served in the order of arrival and though space is available at the gas station to accommodate waiting customers. The gas station is open 24 hours a day. (Hint: Refer the Pharmacy model we discussed in-class)
1. Develop a simulation model for above system in Arena.
2. Simulate the model for 30 days. (replication length)
3. How much time a customer waits in line before being able to pump gas?
4. On average, how many customers wait in line? (Queue length)
5. What is the utilization of the gas pump?
6. If the mean of number of customers arrive at the gas station increases to 15 per hour, re-run the simulation and calculate c), d) and e). Compare the results with previous case (12 per hour rate).
7. If the mean number of customers arrive at the gas station increases to 20 per hour, discuss the long-term system stability of the gas-station.
5. [30 points] Consider the above gas station. Assume that there are 3 type of customers who come to the gas station. 1st type of customers fills the gas and leave the gas station. 2nd type of customers goes inside the convenience store at the gas station while the gas is being filled to use the rest-room. 3rd type of customers goes inside the convenience store, use the rest-room and buy something. 30% of the customers are type 1 and they need on average 2 minutes to be served. 50% of the customers are type 2 and they need on average 3 minutes to be served. 20% of the customers are type 3 and they need 4.5 minutes to be served. Assume that while customers use the facilities, their car is parked at the gas pump and no other customer can use the pump until the customer exits the gas station. (Hint: Refer the modified pharmacy model)
1. Develop a simulation model for above system in Arena.
2. Simulate the model for 30 days. (replication length)
3. How much time a customer waits in line before being able to pump gas?
4. On average, how many customers wait in line? (Queue length)
5. What is the utilization of the gas pump?

Exercise 1:   The following sentences describe the production of time-release capsules for medicine, but they are not arranged in logical order and several can and should be combined with transition words. Use these sentences and add transitions as you see fit to create a good, logical paragraph. When you have done so, enter your final work on Blackboard as usual.

-0-

Millions of these central cores are placed in large drums that rotate like cement mixers.

A waxy coating is applied over the medication; it is applied by the same rotating-drum method.

The drums rotate while medication coats the central cores.

The pin-head sized pills in a time-release capsule almost seem to “know” when to release the medicine they contain, but it is the process by which they are made that assures that a uniform supply of medication in the correct amounts is provided over a period of hours.

More coating is applied to the beads in some drums than in others.

A central core of sugar and starch is the basis for each of the 300 to 900 pills in each capsule.

The thicker coatings are dissolved by digestive processes more slowly; their medication is released later.

Exercise 2:

Composition Exercise: Using Statistics

Select any topic that interests you that you can use to create a persuasive paragraph-length argument based on statistics. You will need to use more than one set of statistics in order to make a good argument, and remember that statistics can be tricky and misleading – you should keep in mind the ethical dimension of the Rhetorical Triangle and use your information clearly. (An old adage is that there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics!”) You can avoid the biased use of statistics not only with ethical rhetorical practices but by remembering what counts as evidence as well: it must be “O-U-R!”

It will also help to recall the formal definitions of fact and theory since good statistics are numerical statements of facts that have been provisionally verified to a high degree of probability. If you can do so, you may use statistics that relate to your longer essays so that you can incorporate this work into one of those. Remember, too, that this need only be a well-developed paragraph, so you should select a topic that can be managed in that space.

– A summary of evidence for industrial activity as the cause of current climate change

– An assertion that students doing extra-curricular activities get better over-all grades.

– An argument for retaining (or removing) fluoride from the public water supply.

– An assessment of the economic results of using railroads for freight and travel.

– The benefits versus the damage caused by school sports at specific ages.

… or any similar subject that interests you and that can be “boiled down” to a paragraph!

When you have finished your paragraph, give it a good title and submit it as usual.

Exercise 3

Identifying Faulty Logic

Each following statement is an example of a common error in logical thinking and has been selected because it represents the error very closely. Copy this page and identify the faults by selecting what you think to be the best answer, then submit your responses using “Write Submission” as usual.  10 Points total.

1. “I think pot ought to be illegal because it’s so addictive, and if you smoke one joint you’re likely to be hooked for life.”

The Fault:

1. “Dr. Scott Atlas says we don’t need to wear masks to prevent Covid 19 infection, so why do you think we should?”

The Fault:

1. “His dad’s a preacher, so you can be sure he’s a moral person.”

The Fault:

1. “Fred’s philosophy class was hard and so is mine, so I’m thinking philosophy must be a hard subject.”

The Fault:

1. “When President Smurd lowered taxes, crime dropped, so lowering taxes is a good way to fight crime.”

The Fault:

1. “Our dorm is in bad shape, so we have to tear it down or people will risk being injured in the unsafe environment.”

The Fault:

1. “You can’t proveghosts don’t exist, and I can tell you they do!”

The Fault:

1. “We can’t listen to him on global warming – he’s a tree-hugger!”

The Fault:

1. “Making Americans register guns is like the Nazi’s making Jews register their religion.

The Fault:

1. Penguins and old TV shows are black and white, so some penguins must be old TV shows.

The Fault:

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